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1/26/2010

AFL Dream Team 2010 From Left Field - Matthew Wright

Matthew (Matt) Wright is midfielder drafted from North Adelaide to the Crows. He should be listed as a dual position mid/fwd, though he is solely a midfielder. He is on Adelaide's rookie list, but this should not prove a barrier to selection, with both Otten and Martin likely to miss most of the year on the long term injury list, opening up places for rookie listed players. Wright is mature aged at 21 and a proven ballwinner at SANFL level. Chris Schmidt (2 games for Brisbane) is the obvious first choice from the rookie list, but has had an interrupted pre-season and is unlikely to play in the NAB so Wrighty should be the first cab off the ranks.

Wright was 3rd in the NAFC best and fairest last year, represented SA in the state competition and won North's best young player award. He unfortunately did his PCL late in the season for North, but this shouldn't have affected his preseason too much. He has a history of getting injured at the wrong time, most famously getting his skull cracked in by some party gatecrashers when he was first in line to be drafted a couple of years ago. Nothing special DTwise in there, so why would you pick him?

Last year in the SANFL, he averaged 93 DT points (96 if you ignore his 38 when he was playing injured in Rd 21). He is an inside midfielder who clocks up almost 3 tackles per game, has a positive k:h ratio (around 1.3) and gets near 2 frees for per game because he gets his head over the ball. He averaged 23 touches per game in the next best comp to the AFL last year and added a half dozen marks, despite his small stature. He only scored less than 70 twice in 17 games with 8 scores 100+. Matt also averaged .7 goals per game and will probably spend more time forward at AFL level.

Wrighty should be able to step in straight away and average 70-75. The only problem for Matt is that he needs to break into a Crows side that is historically reluctant to play youth. Take a punt if he gets gametime in the NAB or is named later in the year and you will have a unique pick that could make the difference.

1/14/2010

Cycling: Tour Down Under 2010 Preview

It seems like the World Championships were just a short time ago, but the first ProTour event of the year is almost upon us. The Tour Down Under has traditionally been a Tour De Sprinters, and this year should be no exception.

The Key Contenders:

Allan Davis (Astana): Defending champion and the only rider to have participated in every TDU so far, Davis is a very good sprinter who has the climbing capacity to survive Willunga hill. He
has strong support in the likes of Pereiro and Grivko to shepherd him up the climbs. Will be right up there for the win.

Andre Greipel (Columbia-HTC): Probably the 2nd fastest sprinter in the world at the moment (behind his Columbia team mate Cavendish) but also capable of climbing. Dominated the sprints at the Vuelta Espana last year. Probably not quite as accomplished a climber as Davis, but also a better sprinter. Has a traditionally powerful Columbia lead out train featuring Grabsch and Eisel as well as Rogers for climbing support. Should win the sprinter's jersey and may be able to
fight his way up Willunga Hill to win the overall.

Robbie McEwen (Katusha): A real wild card for the sprinter's jersey, McEwen has struggled with injuries since joining the Russian team Katusha. Is getting on in years, but still packs a punch and has the nous to disrupt the Columbia sprint train. Has no shot of getting up Willunga Hill with the peloton so will not contend for overall.

Alejandro Valverde (Caisse D'Epagne): Valverde will be racing every race as if it is his last with an impending doping hearing threatening to suspend him for 2 years for his role in Operation Puerto. He has a strong climbing team to support him featuring Luis Leon Sanchez and Ivan Gutierrez. Won't contend in the sprints, but may make a move to split from the bunch up Willunga Hill.

Stages:
Stage 1:

Stage 1 will decide who is here for real and who is using it as preseason training. Not tough enough that it will be decided outside the usual TDU sprint finish, but the hills n
ear the end, including Mengler's Hill should be enough to shed those who aren't prepared for this race.

Stage 3:

Stage 3, like Stage 1, will not be serious enough to avoid a sprinter's victory. However, the hilly terrain around the Stirling circuit will cause another cull of the pack, and the uphill finish will favour a climbing sprinter like Davis more than a McEwen.

Stage 5:
The traditional Queen Stage of the TDU will climb Willunga Hill twice, giving the best opportunity for a non-sprinter to breakaway for victory. Willunga Hill is 3kms at around 8% gradient, providing enough of a challenge that non-climbers will fall back. A decent climber, with a strong team around him may be able to hang onto the back and catch up on the descent, much as Davis did last year. However, expect a non-sprinter to win the stage from an elite bunch. This is the stage where Alberto Contador got what he deemed the most important win of his career coming back from cerebral cavernoma in 2005.

After all that, I will tip an Allan Davis win again, with Greipel winning the sprinter's jersey but being dropped up Willunga Hill.

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