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12/18/2009

AFL DT 2010 From Left Field - Phil Davis

As regular readers will know, I have been doing a series of posts profiling potential 2010 Dream Team recruits. Since Dream Team Talk launched their 52 players in 52 days preseason guide which will cover all the obvious picks, I will be moving to the left field selections, especially those I (as both an Adelaide fan and a North Adelaide Roosters fan) have inside knowledge about.

Phil Davis is a key defender. He can also be selected as a forward. He is not quite what you would call a left field selection for those who have done their research already. Before you run to the hills in fear of a 30 average, he is a creative type player, in the vein of S. Fisher or Bock. He can also play forward. Last year, he was knocking so hard on the door of the Crows defence that almost any other team in the league would have been playing him. But at Adelaide, he had three major roadblocks taking the key defence roles in Bock, Rutten and Otten (2nd in the rising star). However, for 2010 Otten is out with an ACL knee injury leaving a spot free for Davis.

There are two worries for Davis on getting his spot. Scott Stevens could be thrust back into the defence to plug the hole. This is unlikely in light of Davis' form over last year and Adelaide's need to find some key defenders to take over after Bock and Rutten. The other faint possibility is that Daniel Talia finds some excellent form over the NAB Cup and leapfrogs him. Again, considering what Davis showed last year this is unlikely.

Phil was a first round draft pick before last season, showing his potential. Playing in an Adelaide defence which likes to share the ball around, he should be capable of putting up similar numbers to Otten last year, probably averaging around 60. By the end of 2009, his SANFL coach Daniel Healy claimed he was 'the best tall defender in the competition' and was a regular emergency for the Adelaide side. He will be priced at regular draftee price in 2010, making him a lock for your defensive bench.

Edit: Looking at Phil's 2009 SANFL stats, he averaged 58 DT points, with 3 scores from 18 games over 70. He looks like a Scarlett type scorer who has occasional massive scores when he is let free, but cannot maintain these. He averaged 16 touches and 5 marks with a greater number of handballs than kicks. Or he could just be showing glimpses of his potential at this stage. He should get the ball shared to him more at AFL level due to the higher possession gamestyle of Adelaide. In any case, anyone who can consistently play as a DT back at base price is a solid pick.

11/20/2009

Making Test Cricket Testing Again

At present, the West Indies, cricketing powerhouse of the 1970s-1990s are so feeble that the Queensland state side are ahead by more than 300 runs on the first innings of their tour match. They have only 4 players who would make an Aussie state side (Sarwan, Chanderpaul, Gayle and possibly Bravo). Yet this is not the threatened 2nd tier team which would have come had disagreements between the players and sponsors not been solved. It is time for a two-tiered top level in Test cricket. Test matches are about the contest between two evenly matched teams, a true test of players' skill and resolve. The coming series of 3 tests will not tax the Australian side one iota (even if one of their best batsman (Hughes) is not playing).


Let the West Indian players develop their game against weaker sides (New Zealand, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Zimbabwe, Ireland, Australia A, England A, India A, South Africa A). At the end of each calendar year, the top side from the lower division gets promoted and the bottom side from the top division goes down (with variation possible in the number of teams in each division depending on the number of strong teams). The A teams would also be varied depending on depth and which teams are strong. This would also have the added effect of giving some meaning to the ICC Test championship table. The lower division teams would still get to play the top level teams in series of meaningless ODIs as they do now (hello Chappell-Hadlee series). Anyone from Fremantle could tell you that getting flogged every week doesn't make you a better player.

And obviously, pitches need to be prepared so that there is something in them for bowlers. Low scoring test cricket is much more exciting than games where both sides make 500 in the first innings and sporting declarations are required to make a contest.

10/27/2009

AFL Dream Team 2010 Player Profile: Franklin, Lance "Buddy"

Vital Statistics:
Name: Lance "Buddy" Franklin
Team: Hawthorn
Age:23
Position: Fwd
2010 Price: $354,900
2009 Avg: 80.8 from 21 games
Historical Avgs: 96 from 22 in '08, 79 from 20 in '07, 57 from 14 in '06, 51 from 20 in '05
Pros:
-Was below par last year, with poor supply and weight issues detracting from his point scoring
-Has been rarely injured historically (playing more than 20 games in all but '06)
-Had a strong finish to the year with scores over 90 in 5 of his last 6 games
-Should improve back to somewhere near his '08 average of 96
-Is still young and scarily could still improve

Cons:
-Suspension carried over from last year means he will miss round 1
-Has had a few troubles with the tribunal in the past (3 visits in the past 2 years)
-Has Tom Boonen like off-field problems which may lead to a suspension (if the AFL has decent testing procedures)
-Gives away a lot of frees against (-3 points each)

Best Case Scenario: 21 games at 98
Worst Case Scenario: 18 games at 86

At a Glance: Dipped last year, should be back up again in 2010. Make sure you have playing cover for round 1


10/20/2009

Cricket: Dropping Your Best Player - Only In South Australia

Last Sunday, the South Australian Redbacks played their first ODD game of the season, after a good bowling performance secured them a win in their first first class (does that even make sense?) hit-out. There's nothing specific of note in that. Except if you look at the team list. Neil Dansie medalist (best player across all formats for SA) from last year, Michael Klinger was absent. He topped the run aggregates for SA in the ODD competition with 469, just short of Lee Carseldine from Queensland as highest in the competition (although Carseldine had an extra game in the final). He is not injured, as he took his place in the Sheffield Shield game earlier in the week. He didn't exactly set the world on fire in that game, scoring 3 and 15 not out but surely you don't drop your best player after one poor innings. Instead, a batting lineup that had keeper and sometimes batsman Graham Manou at number four barely managed 9/249.

Tasmania chased it down with ease, almost getting a bonus point. This is partly because of an inexperienced attack, and partly because Aaron O'Brian is shit. Tasmania's fast men (with the exception of international Ben Hilfenhaus) were comparable to the Redbacks lineup. But the Tigers' spinners took a combined 3/77 off 18. O'Brian (SA's only playing spinner) took 1/49 off 8. This guy is keeping a real spinner (like Cullen Bailey) out of the side with a first class (bowling) average a tad under 50 and an ODD average of over 50. Sure, his batting is okay but by no means is he an allrounder. I mean seriously, Cameron Borgas has a better ODD bowling average (a touch under 50). Surely that says it all.

10/13/2009

AFL Dream Team 2010 Player Profile: Dalziell, Bradd

Vital Statistics:
Name: Bradd Dalziell
Team: West Coast (traded from Brisbane)
Age:23
Position: Mid
2010 Price: $332,200
2009 Avg: 84.0 from 8 games
Historical Avgs: 95 from 7 in '08
Pros:
-Is an absolute ball magnet
-Good DTer, gets plenty of cheap uncontested marks
-Has been traded to West Coast and so can enjoy the wide open spaces of Subiaco Oval which suit his uncontested game
-Is still inexperienced and so has plenty of improvement in him
-Has one of the most inside players in the AFL (Kerr) taking the tags and feeding the ball out to him
-Has a 10% discount

Cons:
-Is possibly the most outside midfielder since Nathan Lonie
-Struggled to break back into the Brisbane side this year after a knee injury
-Has only played 15 games, yet is still priced at almost $400K

Best Case Scenario: 22 games at 102
Worst Case Scenario: 8 games at 90, West Coast realise that he is nothing but a stats whore

At a Glance: Superstar DTer, average player. Make sure his position in the side is secure during the NAB Cup.

Aside: I was going to do a rundown of the players involved in trade week and what it means for their DT scoring, but Dream Team Talk already has a full writeup so I'll just point you to them.

9/29/2009

Cadel Evans - World Road Cycling Champion

I never thought I would see the day when Australia's great white cycling hope Cadel Evans actually attacked. After 2 years of wheel-sitting to get himself 2 second places in Le Tour De France in '07 and '08, he completely ballsed up the '09 edition. He suffered from a throat infection and dropped down the leaderboard like a boulder attached to an anchor. However, a podium place (3rd on paper, 2nd once Valv.piti gets suspended for doping in the Operation Puerto affair) in a Vuelta showed signs that Evans was coming back. Then he exploded in the World Championships in Mendrisio.

After some great support from his Aussie teammates (who, unlike those at Silence are not useless) in bringing back the breakaways and keeping him in the right place, a small group of 20 or so (including Evans and Gerrans for AUS) was formed by a Spartacus attack. Several more attacks later and the group was down to 8 odd, with Gerro dropped. There were 3 Spaniards in the group, Valverde, Rodriguez and Sammy Sanchez while no other nation had any more than 1 (Kolobnev, Evans, Cancellara, Kroon, Cunego, Gilbert). Rodriguez blasted off the side through a gap in the road, with Kolobnev following him. This looks like the defining attack. Evans sprints across the gap, closing them down. No-one else can follow Evans across. Cancellara tries in vain to bring the trailing group forwards. They hit the last climb of the day. Evans goes hard, blasting away from the other two. Rodriguez is spent, he went away in an earlier break also. Kolobnev tries desperately to up the pace, but he can't match Evans. Rodriguez keeps following Kolobnevs wheel, but has nothing left to give. Cancellara has no friends in the chase group and they can't catch the duo of Kolobnev and Rodriguez. Meanwhile Evans is time-trialling at the front, even opening up a gap. No-one can catch him, he wins! Kolobnev 2nd, Rodriguez 3rd. Gerro got 10th, continuing his record of top 10 places in classics.

So thats what can happen if Cadel actually attacks and has support from his team. Probably the biggest win in Australian professional road cycling history. Way to end the season on a high. Imagine how long the mechanics will take to change his wheels now that he has the rainbow jersey curse?


9/18/2009

AFL Dream Team 2010 Player Profile: Andrew Mackie

Vital Statistics:
Name: Mackie, Andrew
Team: Geelong
Age:25
Position: Back
2010 Price: $365,100
2009 Avg: 83.1 from 21 games
Historical Avgs: 91 from 18 in '08, 83 from 21 in '07, 70 from 14 in '06, 59 from 7 in '05, 36 from 13 in '04
Pros:
-Was below par at the start of the year, sucking his season average down
-Averaged a gun (as a defender) 91 in '08
-Plays 3rd tall defender/general mid-sized defender and so can play freely
-Is only 25, so he should keep improving for a couple of years
-Gets more kicks than handballs and plenty of marks around the back


Cons:
-Has never played 22 games in a season, although has only been a regular for the past 3 years
-Historic backman averages suggest he doesn't have any more than 10 ppg of possible improvement
-If Harry Taylor gets dropped, then he might have to play 2nd key tall

Good Luck Result: 21 games at 94 ppg
Bad Luck Result: 16 games at 84 ppg

At a Glance: Good player who should improve on 2009 figures

9/12/2009

Science of Cricket - Drift and Dip

This is the last of a series of posts on the science of cricket. Its not really related to the others, conventional swing, reverse swing and contrast swing except that it is science and cricket related. Reading the other posts first may also help you to understand the terminology used here. When a spinner bowls, a batsman can be 'beaten in flight' or comentators may refer to the drift of a ball or the dip. This is due to a phenomenon known as the Magnus Effect.

Consider first a non-spinning ball moving through a steady fluid flow as seen below. There are no variations in the flow field between the top and bottom sides
of the ball and so there is no irregular movement. As usual, I've
just mined the net for images that will be useful, this ones from google knowledge.
However, then consider if you add spin to the ball, speeding up the flow on the top and slowing down the flow on the bottom as the fluid from the boundary layer of the ball will follow its rotation (image from bound vortex)

This speed change changes the flow field, increasing presure on the top of the ball and decreasing it on the bottom. The flow field for a spinning ball is something like this below from the avalanche center.

Because the pressure is higher below the ball than above, there will be a force towards the top (in this picture). This can be considered, and is valid for any representation where a ball spinning in two dimensions is in a fluid flow. So a purely leg or off-spinning ball (with no topspin) can be considered only from a cut away view that is like an extension of a crease line. And with a purely sideways spinning ball, the relevant fluid flow is only the slow drop of the ball (presuming no crosswind for this case). This will produce little (effectively no) movement due to the magnus effect. But if there is a cross wind, then dip or lift may be produced by this wind. For the example shown above, an off spinning ball with a wind from the bowler's left will cause lift. A similar situation happens when a leggie has a wind from his right. For most situations, dip produced by a cross wind is small, at least compared with that produced by over or under spin.

If you consider a solely overspinning ball, then you can take a side-on slice (along where a straight seam for a seam bowler would be) of the view. This means that the above diagram needs to be flipped vertically, as the ball pictured has underspin. The ball will then have the oncoming velocity of the ball's flight to use and so can produce a large down force, significantly affecting the ball's flight. An underspinning ball (like a flipper) will have a lift force and so will lose more vertical energy in flight, rebounding off the pitch lower. Where it gets even more interesting is when there is a cross wind and overspin. A topspinning ball will also have a small component of force sideways, in a similar manner to a ball with sidespin only. But in this situation the ball will produce a slight forwards or backwards force.

For sideways drift, the ball either has to spin as seen in a top-down plane which can happen with a different delivery style, or the drift is simply drag. This would happen if there was a cross wind which would move the ball in that direction. A ball which is spun in the top-down plane will have minimal deviation, so if a drifting ball seems not to spin then this is the source.

The Magnus Effect is also a major influence on other sports, particularly baseball and soccer curveballs. However, despite what some sources may say, the swing of a fast bowlers ball is not (and realistically cannot) be due to the Magnus Effect. That would require a large spin to be imparted in the top-down plane, which would result in a spinning seam. Common knowledge shows that even a wobbling seam can destroy a bowlers swing (and my earlier posts show why) so a ball that spins like a top? Not a chance in hell.

External Links for Cricket Science:
The Science of Swing Bowling (I disagree with Mehta on some corollories of his theories, but well worth a read. Many other sites just rip off his ideas without the fluid dynamics fundamentals to assert anything different)
Cricket in Full Swing(PDF, not sure about the dimpled/furry theory of his)
Cricket Ball Swing on stadiumturf.com
Why a cricket ball swings (also contains a bit on the Magnus Effect)
The Magnus Effect (actually as much about swing as the Magnus Effect)
The Magnus Effect : Why Pitches Move (not actually about cricket pitches spinning their way around the world, but a post on baseball aerodynamics)
Analytic Functions, the Magnus Effect, and Wings (very equation heavy, only worth looking at if you have an idea of potential flow analysis already. Also not directly cricket related.)

Is there anything you disagree with, or that I've missed? Drop me a comment and we can get into some heated intellectual discussion.

9/09/2009

AFL Dream Team 2010 Player Profile: Luke Hodge

Vital Statistics:
Name: Hodge, Luke
Team: Hawthorn
Age:25
Position: Back/Centre
2010 Price: $366,800
2009 Avg: 83.5 from 19 games
Historical Avgs: 97 in '08, 95 in '07, 90 in '06, 101 in '05, 74 in '04
Pros:
-Has averaged 90 or above for the past 4 seasons before '09
-Dropped his average in '09 due to an interrupted pre-season, in '10 he should be back to previous form
-Played all 22 games in '06 and '07 showing durability
-Has never played less than 15 games in a season

Cons:
-Has been tagged more in '09 so he may never get back up to his peak of over 100 ppg

Good Luck Result: 22 games at 98 ppg
Bad Luck Result: 18 games at 87 ppg, cops a heavy tag

At a Glance: A gun who historically should average at least 10 ppg more than his price

9/06/2009

AFL Dream Team 2010 Player Profile: Tom Swift

Vital Statistics:
Name: Swift, Tom
Team: West Coast
Age:19
Position: Centre
2010 Price: $301,400
2009 Avg: 68.6 from 10 games
Historical Avgs: N/A
Pros:
-Averaged 95.6 over the last 5 games of '09
-Only 1 score below 85 in those 5 games
-Sucked his price down with 4 games under 45 in mid-season
-Has proven his ability to dominate a game in underage ranks

Cons:
-Has historically been injury prone, missed most of '07 and '08 with injury
-Could be dropped if he has a bad patch like in mid-season '09

Good Luck Result: 20 games at 95 ppg
Bad Luck Result: 4 games at 60 ppg, out with a season long injury

At a Glance: Potential gun worth the risk


9/04/2009

AFL Dream Team 2010 Starts Now!

The regular season of Dream Team is finished for 2009. So what should you do with your miserable lives for the next seven months? You can play Finals Dream Team for the first of those, but a four week competition where your team will change completely every week cannot compete with a proper Dream Team. You could play a Dream Team for another sport such as A-League soccer (except that you have missed the first 5 rounds) or NBL basketball. But I have a better solution that your Dream Team will thank you for. Give your team a big pre-season.

Even if you are not a Dream Team fanatic, you should note down the players you think have finished well this year and should improve next year. Right now, they will be fresh in your mind and this can make the difference betwen picking a Higgins and a Skipworth next year.

A genuine Dream Teamer can take this to the next level by combining gut feel with proper statistics and the opinions of those who should know better. You cannot yet plan your whole team for next year, because the salary cap, magic number and rookie prices (as well as what rookies will be where) are still unknown. But this shouldn't stop you from putting together a shortlist of players to consider. Fanfooty has tried to put together a 2010 planner, which should give you an idea of whether your team will fit under the salary cap. You need to sign up for a free fanfooty asccount to do this. Look for gun players who have been below par this year in comparison to previous years or young players who will improve next year.

To help you do this, FFGenie will give you all the Dream Team stats you could possibly need from this year. It can be a bit overwhelming at first, but it is easy enough to use. Just remember, if you are a first time user you need to click on Update all Rounds and then save the file. You can filter the stats almost any way you want to try to find that improving gun.

For data before this year, there are two methods. You can look up the player in the 2009 AFL prospectus book which gives you the advantage of all the players stats, so you can tell if they are a good Dream Teamer (lots of marks and tackles as well as touches) or just a good player. If you don't have the prospectus then you can use fanfooty's player search option to get past stats. The Prospectus is recommended if you have it.

You should also keep an eye out for players other people are recommending, to atleast do a check on them and see if they might be worthy selections. Information is power in Dream Team, so keep your ear to the ground. Dream Team Talk will give regular pre-season updates and should be one of your main sources in-season for Chook's Rooks and Calvin's Captains. Fanfooty is another priority source, giving live scores during games, depth charts (once we get closer to the season) and their player stats records. The fanfooty blog can be useful, but its not as good as DTTalk. The Coaches Box is a regular in-season and irregular off-season Dream Team podcast. I will also be doing player profiles on smokies here through the off-season.

Now we come to the less reliable sources of information - forums. There are a few of note, where the unwashed masses meet to discuss their picks. Make sure you check up these players with your own research though, some people have been known to put false picks in an attempt to throw off the unwary. The biggest AFL forum in the world, BigFooty has a Dream Team section that is well patronised. There are also a few Dream Team specific forums that are worth checking out. Fanfooty has a forum, used by the type of obsessive Dream Teamers who watch their scores live. There is also a forum attached to Dream Team Talk although the comments pages for DTTalk posts generally act like a forum anywayand a specific Dreamteamforum.

This should be enough info for you to start planning your assault on the Dream Team Premiership in 2010, so get to it and stay tuned for player profiles here on the Rushed Behind.


8/31/2009

Science of Cricket - Contrast Swing

This is the 3rd in a series of posts about swing in cricket. The terminology is introduced gradually, so it is recommneded that you read The Science of Conventional Swing and The Science of Reverse Swing first. This time, we will discuss contrast swing, which is often confused with proper reverse swing. Contrast swing is actually the most simple type of swing conceptually.

We will start with a diagram from Mehta again.
The first major difference you will notice is that the seam is pointed straight. This means that the only difference between the sides of the ball is the roughness. At conventional swing speeds only the boundary layer flow over the rough side will become turbulent, meaning that it will stay attached longer. This means that the pressure exerted on the smooth side will be greater and the ball will move towards the rough side, meaning the ball is moving 'reverse'.

At reverse swing speeds, both sides will transition to turbulence. If the rough side is exceedingly rough, this roughness may have a similar effect as the seam in reverse swing and weaken the boundary layer, causing earlier transition. I think however, that this type of swing would cause minimal ball deflection compared with slower contrast swing or either seamed swing types. Any movement that would occur would be towards the smooth side.

The seam is irrelevent to contrast swing and so this type of swing can be practised with a standard 1/2 taped tennis ball (not 1/2 a ball, 1/2 taped).

A note on speeds: For both slow contrast swing and conventional swing, there is not only an upper limit to the speed the ball is bowled at, but also a lower limit. Below a certain speed, neither side will transition to turbulence. So for you park bowlers out there, you may simply be bowling too slow to swing it. All these speeds mentioned will vary depending on atmospheric conditions, as explained in the post on reverse swing.

Next in the series is spin bowling 'drift'.

8/25/2009

Cricket Dream Team: We Are Winner

Just a little update, in between my science of swing research. With the Ashes over and the Poms somehow winning (despite averaging more than 6 runs per wicket less than the Aussies) you need something to cheer you up. So here are some recent fantasy results:

The Rushed Behind Blog League (as posted previously) came 7th in the overall best leagues competition out of 889. Go team! I reckon we shoulpd be 5th though because two of the leagues above us only did one or two tests. I personally (as the Rushed Behind) came in the top 400 (in 345th for those of you who like exact numbers) out of around 9000 entries after being screwed over by Michael Clarke's duck as captain in the last innings.

In the other Ashes fantasy competition of note, The Rushed Behind finished 9th overall. That's 9th as the 9th best team in total. Unfortunately, I can't tell you how many teams there were in total, because of the poor system used by SBS but I would estimate at least 1000 teams.

I read a great article on DTers the other day on dreamteamtalk.com, so check it out. I'm definately the "Injuries have F*%ked me this year" guy. Who are you?


A rapping cyclist. Now I've seen everything. Its also pretty funny, especially if you are into cycling, or just like seeing someone try to fit words like cardiovascular fitness and cadence into a rap. Disappointed he only has a $5000 bike though, Giant have a $18,499 model. Bonus points for also being Aussie.

8/16/2009

Science of Cricket - Genuine Reverse Swing



The Science of Cricket series continues with the second type of swing bowling, reverse swing. This series will gradually increase in complexity, so you can learn more and understand better by reading them in order. The first in the series is The Science of Cricket - Conventional Swing. Despite common misconceptions, reverse swing is not bowled with a straight seam. That form of swing bowling is contrast swing, to be discussed in the next post. True reverse swing is performed with a similar action to conventional swing but with the rough side at the front of the ball. The seam is still angled, but in this case away from where the bowler wants it to go.

Again, we will start with another diagram from Mehta, who is the media's go-to man when it comes to swing science (and I can't really be bothered drawing my own diagrams, when he has the basic flow ideas right).
So again, we have the ball flowing through a fluid (air). But on this occassion, the ball has the rough side oriented towards the flow. The ball is bowled at a combination of higher speed and/or more roughness at the front of the ball. This causes the boundary layers (layers of fluid near the surface of the ball) at the top and the bottom of the ball to transition to turbulence (irregular, chaotic flow) before the flow hits the seam. In this case, the seam cannot kick the flow into turbulence as it does in conventional swing bowling, as the flow is already turbulent. So the seam strips away the base of the boundary layer (visualise it as a thin stream of fluid flowing over the ball), leaving a thinner boundary layer. Now as discussed in the conventional swing article, any
asymmetry in flow will produce a difference in the separation point of the boundary layer. In this case, as the boundary layer over the top is thinner and has less energy holding it to the ball, it will separate more easily. From this point, the macroscopic consequences of this are a mirror image of conventional swing, with the fluid flowing over the top side of the ball exerting more pressure once the boundary layer has separated. This moves the ball towards the bottom, swinging the ball away from where the seam is directed.

Reverse swing appears to be later than conventional, but paradoxially, this is because it begins earlier. The only sideways (technically perpendicular to the direction of travel) forces which will act on the ball are those provided by swing, assuming there is no sideways spin on the ball, and any backspin is minimal (we'll get into the effects of that later, in the article on spin "drift" and dip). These forces keep working over time, and so the sideways speed keeps increasing all the way to the keeper. In most (elite level at least) cases of conventional swing bowling the ball is not travelling slow enough to generate any swing before it is close to, or even after bouncing. This means the ball can only generate side force during around the last 8 metres or so of its flight (number will vary rapidly betwen bowlers and conditions, but 8 is good for an example). This is why a conventionally swinging ball will often move rapidly after it has passed the batsman. But a reverse swinging ball can move from the moment it leaves the bowler's hand. This enables it to build up to a high sideways speed by the time it reaches the batsman (where it may sometimes have stopped accelerating sideways). For the same reason, all swinging balls will move faster later in their flight.

If the flow state is between reverse and conventional swing (ie the flow just before the seam (top of the diagrams used) is laminar and the flow over the bottom is turbulent then no swing will result, as both sides will have turbulent boundary layers of similar thickness.

In reverse swing, the smoothness of the "smooth side" is less important than the roughness of the rough side. If this smooth side is too rough, the boundary layer over this section after the seam will increase in thickness, negating the advantage gained by trimming the boundary layer with the seam. This will reduce the amount of movement, and combined with lessening seam protrusion as the ball wears is responsible for the ball stopping genuine reverse swing after a time.

The next post in this series will deal with Contrast Swing, aka "backyard reverse swing".

A "technical" aside, for those who want to know more: The flow will transition from laminar to turbulent at a certain "Reynolds number", smaller for a rougher surface. The Reynolds number is (ball speed*distance travelled along ball/kinematic viscosity) where kinematic viscosity is a property of the atmospheric environment. For example, the kinematic viscosity of the atmosphere is generally 8% higher at 1000m above sea level (lower than the Potchefstroom ground in South Africa) than at sea level, meaning a bowler must bowl 8% faster to get the saame reverse swing. But conventional swing can also be achieved at a speed of 8% faster at this altitude than at sea level. The kinematic viscosity varies all over the Earth too, and varies depending on weather conditions (if anyone reading this has links to measurements of kinematic viscosity, density or dynamic viscosity in sunny compared to overcast conditions, or England compared with Australia (to identify why swing bowling was so prevalent in the Ashes series of 2005 compared with 06/07) then I would appreciate the data) So to allow a ball to reverse swing, you can increase your speed, increase the surface roughness or increase your seam angle (although diverting this from the optimal will reduce the amount of movement, some movement is better than none). If you are trying to swing the ball conventionally then you need to keep the flow below transition over the bottom of the ball until separation (generally somewhere around 90 degrees around the ball). This means you may need to reduce your speed or change the atmospheric conditions, but changing the seam angle will not affect the transition speed. It will still affect the amount the ball swings.

Non-technical aside: Wow, that was a long post.


8/11/2009

Science of Cricket - Conventional Swing

Over the next few posts, The Rushed Behind will enlighten you as to the science of cricket. How do the different types of swing work? What causes "drift" of a spinning ball? Why does the amount of swing differ depending on the atmospheric conditions? These, and possibly more (if I can think of more questions) will be answered over the coming posts. But first, why should you believe my explanations over those of cricketers who claim it is an unexplainable art form? Well, as you will probably be surprised to know, I actually have a degree in Aerospace Engineering. So despite my bowling being more like ex-PM John Howard than Andrew Flintoff I can explain what is going on. And hopefully, in a way that a layman can understand (which is the problem with most other sources of information on these subjects).

So, first off is conventional swing. The key to conventional swing (from here on, just swing) is the seam. Lets consider a cricket ball with an angled seam, like the one drawn by Mehta below.
The fluid (air) flow over the top of the ball (as seen in the picture above) is disturbed by the seam, causing the boundary layer (fluid near the surface of the ball) to become turbulent. At this point, you are probably wondering what turbulent means. Any flow can be either laminar, turbulent or in transition between the two states. Laminar flow is nice and steady while turbulent flow has vortices and rotation of fluid. However, turbulent flow can stay attached for longer (because of the irregularities in the flow, but you don't need to know that) so the flow over the top remains attached for longer. This means that there is separation of the boundary layer earlier on the bottom of the ball and so the fluid exerts more pressure on the ball here, without the effect of the boundary layer. So there is more pressure on the bottom than the top, and the ball is moved by this pressure, towards the top.

However, the point of separation will also depend on the speed the ball is travelling at, and the smoothness of the front side. If the speed is too high or the ball is too rough then the boundary layer on the smooth side will transition towards turbulence, negating the advantage of the seam kicking the top flow into turbulence. This will negate the conventional swing, causing a straight ball and the bowler to look silly if he planned on swinging it. This is what happens when the ball stops swinging after a while as it gets roughed up. The ball may not swing from the start, as the lacquer is often less smooth than the leather of the ball itself. This will decrease the transition speed of the bottom side and so the ball will not swing. This is what is happening with the Duke balls used in England in the Ashes at the moment, with the ball starting to swing once the lacquer comes off. The wear on the ball will also lessen the effect of the seam, reducing the protuberance and potentially keeping the flow laminar for longer, reducing swing.

There are situations where conventional swing may only happen after the ball has bounced, if the seam is still in a good position and the bounce of the ball has reduced the speed below the threshold speed, but the seam position is so critical that this is rare.

Next Post - Reverse Swing

8/09/2009

Cricket: Australia Smash the Broad Poms

It was a return to the tradition of Ashes cricket for the 4th test, with Australia smashing the Poms by an innings and 80 runs. The English were bowled out for a paltry 102 in the first dig, with only Cook(30), Prior(37) and Extras(17) getting into double figures. Collingwood got the dreaded -20 points for a duck. Top marks if you picked Extras in your Dream Team. Siddle(5/21) and Clark(3/18) showed that good line and length and decent pace are all you need to bowl if the pitch is doing a bit.

Australia then piled on 445 in reply, thanks to North(110), Clarke(93), Ponting(78) and Watson(51). There were also decent bowler-batting scores for Johnson(27) and Clark(32). Australia scored at 4.27 runs per over, ensuring no economy rate bonuses for the English bowlers. The game was probably over as a contest once the Aussies past 300, but for DTers, the game isn't over until the last ball. Stewie Broad picked up 6/91 to be the pick of the bowlers while Anderson and Swann went wicketless (leaving Swann with 0 points up to this point). Katich got the -20, but 2 catches in Englands 1st innings meant that he wasn't looking at a negative score.

England tried a bit in their 2nd dig, but never had a chance to make a game of it. Their horrid batting lineup failed again, with Bopara getting a 1st baller and Bell and Collingwood getting 7 between them. Strauss(32) and Cook(30) got starts as did Prior(22), but it was the bowlers who shone for astute coaches. Stuart Broad got a swashbuckling 61, and Swann moved off the donut with 62 while Harmison got 19 not to ease the pain of those coaches who traded Broad for him, thinking Stewie would be dropped.

What happened in AFL Dream Team? Don't Go There!

8/07/2009

Soccer: Leeds United - Most Loathed Club In England

A survey has revelaed that Leeds United, currently stuck in the League 1 (3rd tier) are the most loathed club in England. As a Leeds United fan, its great that fans of other clubs still remember who we are. In fact, pretty much the only blogs you'll get from me regarding English soccer will be about Leeds (probably a bit about Adelaide United (Aus) too). I notice we've signed Patrick Kisnorbo, sometimes Australian international over the off-season who should strengthen the backline and add to the Aussie toughness with Neil Kilkenny. Leeds have had a good pre-season, including draws against Premier division Blackburn and Newcastle. Leeds first game of the season is tomorrow against Exeter, with the club looking to get an automatic promotion spot after missing out in the playoffs for the past two years.

Ross Lyon - Saint or AFL Dream Team Devil?

Dream Team (DT) gets serious this week, with the first week of finals kicking off. So Ross Lyon decides to "withdraw with injury" 5 of his players, 4 of which are critcial DT players for many coaches. Riewoldt, Goddard, Montagna and Hayes (as well as Baker, who is of no interest to DTers) have been left out of the side to face Hawthorn. They are all listed as "unsure of exact diagnosis or prognosis" on the prime DT injury source. The only silver lining is that my man Geary and 'possible cover if you had him at the start of the year and got too many injuries to cash cow him' Dawson come back. On the downside, Gilbert has been kept back becuase of this resting policy too. I'm betting the Ross Lyon is playing someone who has a ton of St Kilda players in his DT finals series. For disgraceful coaching like this, Ross Lyon goes onto the RB Shit List.

Then chuck in Chappy's hamstring, Ellis, Grimes left out so Melbourne don't win too many games with a "hip", Skipworth omitted, Dazzle, Sidebottom, Barham, Harding, Ballantyne suspended and doubts on Stevie J and Jolly and you've got the DT week from hell. I'm carrying 2 donuts, but I know of people who have 6 or 7.

Nathan Lovett-Murray (of little DT importance) is still playing, despite being charged by police for possessing ecstasy. Looks like the AFL have taken the Tom Boonen route on this one. But then its no surprise, with the soft drugs policy they have. The AFL are content to go Dodo, sticking their head in the sand about anything they don't want to know about. Like tanking. Several clubs are obviously tanking this year, with coaches selecting vastly weakened sides (and constantly leaving out Jack Grimes). The players would never play at less than 100%, but the coaches certainly would.

Australia held out for a draw in the 3rd Ashes test, with Brett Lee and Brad Haddin possible inclusions for the 4th game, starting tonight. Flitoff has fitness concerns, but he has before every game this series. He'll play. Haddin should be fit enough to takes the gloves from Manou (who just shaded Hilfenhaus with the bat in the last test, scoring 21 runs in 2 innings (1 not out) to Hilfy's 20. The Haus did only get one inning though) but Lee will probably be left out. Australia's bowling attack in general seems uncertain still, so your only cricket DT certainties for Aus are Hilfo and Johnno (Hilfenhaus and Johnson to any Poms reading). Stuart Broad's spot in the Pommy side is uncertain too, with Sidebottom brought into the squad. But really, cricket DT is simple compared to trying to dodge tanks in AFL DT.

Edit: Add Bock and Fisher to the list of outs and 2 more donuts makes 4 for the Rushed Behind.

8/02/2009

Cycling: Astarloza - A Star Loser !

Mikel Astarloza, the Spanish cyclist who won stage 16 of this year's Tour De France and finished 11th overall has tested positive for EPO. It is not yet known what type of EPO (presumably CERA) but SBS has reported that it was during an out of competition test. A disciplinary hearing will be held next month by the UCI to determine his punishment (probably a 2 year suspension) after he tested positive on the 26th of June. The UCI needs to act faster on these cases, the sample was taken before the TDF and yet Astarloza was still able to compete. But at least thats another cheat forcibly removed from the peloton. Astarloza's stage win in the TDF this year was his first professional stage win (he won the 2003 Tour Down Under around South Australia) but he had consistantly finished highly overall in major stage races such as the Dauphine Libre and Le Tour. There was no obvious upspike in his form this year, indicating that he had been doping for several years before this. I have added him and Danilo Di Luca to the shit list for being cheating gits.


In other news, after the flurry of recent postings, I've decided to finally get a related address. So this blog is now at rushedbehind.blogspot.com. Neat hey. If you are reading this, you are on the new site. The whole blog has been moved, so all the archives are still here. Call me a traditionalist, but I reckon a blog should have an address related to its name. So if you still have the old site bookmarked, change it now. And if you don't have this site bookmarked, what a great opportunity to do so. I don't know if the rss feeds were affected, so if you use these, you might want to check it out. But if you are getting this, then you will get all future posts. I do seem to have somehow lost my blogroll, so this will be refilled gradually, as I remember which blogs were worth reading.

Go rain, go! You are Australia's only hope at staving off defeat (and poor fantasy cricket scores from Brad Haddin given his late withdrawal after my kiss of death)!


7/31/2009

Cricket: You've Just Broken The Ashes' Finger!

Late news from the 3rd test last night that Brad Haddin broke his finger. Apparantly he was facing the last few balls of the fast bowlers warm-ups and copped an injury on the end of his left ring finger. This was after the toss, but Strauss graciously let the Aussies swap in Manou for him, knowing that a one-handed Haddin would still bat better than Manou. He averages less than 25 in first class cricket. Thats less than Mitchell Johnson, Stuart Broad or Graham Swann. Will he bat at 9 or 10? Will he outscore Hilfenhaus? All these questions, and more will be answered during the remaining tests, which Haddin will miss. And Australia will lose the Ashes if they keep this no-hoper in. On the plus side, Shane Watson hasn't been injured yet, wonder if he was the fast bowler who broke Haddin's finger, just passing the injury curse around.

Send an SOS to Tim Paine immediately (ateast he plays like a batsman, even if his keeping is a bit average).

On a completely unrelated note, the Australian soccer world cup bid has a sweet soccer flash game. Check it out.

7/30/2009

Ashes Fantasy Cricket - How To Win

The key to victory in any Ashes fantasy cricket league is to have players from the team that wins. Particularly batsmen need to be from the winning team. Because the poms are cheats, you need some of their players, especially those who claim catches that aren't legit. Because catches are worth 12 points in cricket.com.au and 2 or 1 point for keepers in sbs.com.au. Can't beat that score! If you are in a comp that has a captain, put your kepper (Haddin, because Prior is shit) as your captain from the catch points. Also, don't pick Phil Hughes. He's been dropped! And Shane Whatswrongwithhimthistime has been brought in to replace him. He won't get through the first session. Thats what Australia gets for not bringing a backup batsman (even though Hughes doesn't deserve to be dropped).

Schumy is coming back! The Schuminator is replacing Massa after his injuries. Can he win the championship from here? I reckon Ferrari will suddenly become competive now that he's back.

Port suck! They lost the showdown by 70 points with all their downhill skiers going missing. They gave up more easily than Tom Boonen who left Le Tour early to get high. Speaking of getting high, Aussie pole vaulter Steve Hooker won the London GP recently.


7/29/2009

Cycling: Di Luca Tests Positive

I just found out that Danilo Di Luca, 2nd in the Giro tested positive twice for doping with CERA (the same version of EPO that Ricco used). For more details check here. First of all, what a cunt-face. Second of all, this is a win for the biological passport system recently employed by the UCI. Third of all, a quote from Di Luca after he was found out: "Would I be so stupid as to take CERA at the Tour of Italy one year after (Ricardo) Ricco, (Emanuele) Sella and (Davide) Rebellin were caught." Well, clearly yes, you cheating bastard. Fourth of all, extra congrats to Menchov for beating a drug cheat (despite him falling off about 4 times in Le Tour, maybe hes been taking some happy drugs). Fifth of all, (wow, thats getting a realy tired sentence intro, maybe I should use something else) CNN, learn to quote properly, there needs to be quotes at the start and end of your quotes. Sixth of all, I hope its not 3 months until we find out the cheats from Le Tour (I'm looking at you Wiggo).
Thats almost all for today, just wanted to express my disgust at Di Luca.

Also, respect to George Hincapie, who rode the last 4 stages of Le Tour with a broken collarbone. Now thats tough, and gets him onto the legends list. Not like Nick Riewoldt who just cried when he broke his.

7/27/2009

Cycling: 2009 Tour De France Review


So the main event in cycling is over for another year, with Contador reining supreme. This despite Jens Voigt and Saxobank's radical plan to defeat them in the Pyrenees (see interview below, and ignore non-english subtitles).




The Pyrenees in fact were pretty tame, with only Contador's attack on stage 7 proving at all decisive due to long descents between hilltops and finish lines on stages 8 and 9. And there weren't any bears either.

I can now reveal the secret to the Manx Missile (who won 6 stages, including the Champs Elysees finish) . According to wikipedia, many of the roads on the Isle of Man have no speed limit, while they are all paved. As a result, the Isle has become a haven for hoon drivers, with Jeremy Clarkson, Nigel Mansell and James Toseland all moving to the Isle. This explain's Cav's proficiency in tight, bunch sprints as he madly dodged speeding hoons on the roads of his youth. It also explains why he initially took up track cycling. Despite winning 6 stages, Cav failed to win the Sprinter's green jersey which went to the 'God of Thunder' Thor Hushovd. Thor couldn't match Cav's speed on the pure sprints, but he held his own in uphill finishes and critically, broke away from the field and lead alone over the top of 2 mountains to pick up 12 bonus points at intermediate sprints on stage 17. He beat Cav by 10 points.

As the race moved into the alps, the two best climbers were clearly Andy Schleck and Contador, with Frank able to match them when on his good days. Wiggins continued to amaze with his "I can't believe hes not on a cocktail of drugs" performances maintaining his high standing. The top 2 spots were decided from the moment the road tipped upwards. However, the 3rd place was up for grabs until the penultimate stage up Mont Ventoux due to a combination of factors. Firstly Contador's ability, and frankly desire to assasinate his own team members which lead to Kloden getting dropped from the Schlecks and Contador on stage 17 and Armstrong being deliberately left back to watch Wiggins on the same stage. And secondly, Frank Schleck's horrendous (for a GC rider) time trialling ability. This lead to Armstrong just managing to hold onto the 3rd position up Ventoux, despite Andy Schleck sacrificing the possibility of a stage win to try everything humanly possible to get Frank clear of Armstrong. Wiggins just got 4th by 2 seconds after he was dropped by Frank and Armstrong up Ventoux and got lucky to hold on. Contador however, was clearly the best rider in the climbs, and atleast the second best rider on the time trials, finishing 2nd in the prolgoue and 1st in the stage 18 race against the clock, even beating Spartacus. Franco Pellizotti won the KOM, after reassessing his goals during a horrid time in the Pyrenees.

Next year's tour is looking extra spicy, with Lance starting a new team Radioshack (likely to have a lot of his mates), the Schlecks a year older and Contador's team uncertain (any of a weakened Astana, Caise D'Epargne or Fernando Alonso) as well as other contenders (Ivan Basso anyone?). Now, if Contador and Sastre were in the same team that would be great to watch them try to drop each other (Alonso on left, Sastre centre).


But for now, its back to regular sports (Ashes, footy) until the Vuelta (and possibly a couple of classics that SBS might televise). As a footnote, I came about 120th out of 10000 or so in the SBS fantasy TDF competition.

7/20/2009

Cricket: As English as Tea and Scones - Cheating

It seems yet another great sporting contest is being ruined by umpiring that is at best horribly inconsistant and at worst actively biased. Australia had been outplayed by the Poms in the first 3 days of the 2nd test of the Ashes. Those blasted convicts decided to launch a fightback after they were set the imposing target of 522 in the last innings of the game. Well, the poms managed to find a great solution to their general bowling inadequacy. Just give the batsmen out regardless of what the rules say.

Simon Katich was given out despite a blatant no-ball from Flintoff.
The umpires refused to refer Strauss's catch, despite TV replays showing it clearly hit the ground, giving out Phil Hughes.
And then, a disbelieving Mike Hussey was given out despite hotspot showing that he clearly hit the ground, not the ball after a Swann spun past his edge.
Ignoring the rules or the spirit of the game is an English tradition, remember last time they won the Ashes with minty fresh breath and specialist fielders. And its not just unknown bloggers like me who reckon the umpiring was atrocious. Check out Cricinfo or Stuey MacGill. Bring in referrals for any contentious decision ASAP.
You can check out video of the dismissals at SBS. Just ignore the ads which come on at the start (and during the middle of last night's hill-climb in the TDF).
Brad Wiggins continued his unbelievable performance staying with, and even attacking Nibali, F.Schleck and Sastre and beating Evans and Armstrong. His past strong anti-doping stance may have melted a bit I reckon. Another cheating Pom?

Contador blew away the rest of the field, putting in what is apparentley the fastest climb in the history of the TDF (in terms of vertical climb rate). Even faster than the previous record by drug cheat Bjarne Riis or anyone else who was doped up the eyeballs in the Tour's wild days. Makes you think...


7/17/2009

Cricket: Sending the Poms Into a Spin

England somehow managed to hold Australia to a draw in the 1st test, primarily due to wasting time in the final session. This was aided by Nathan Hauritz taking only 3 wickets from 37 overs on the final day as Australia's only spinner (he did have a good economy rate, which is the important thing in the selectors eyes). Now he's gone and buggered up a catch on the first day of the 2nd test, dislocating his finger so he probably won't be able to bowl for atleast the next few days, leaving Siddle and Hilfy our only real options bowling (Johnno put in a day reminiscent of Bryce McGain's test debut yesterday, I bet he doesn't get thrown out and never given another test...). This (along with Hauritz's general shitness) is why we needed to take 2 spinners on tour (and probably a backup batsman would help too, instead of 2 allrounders and a backup keeper). Send an SOS to that Victorian leg spinner who might be a bit old, but he can still play despite a poor debut. Not Shane Warne, the other one. Or atleast Jason Krejza, he can at least spin the ball.

On the subject of Poms, the first probable drug cheat of the Tour De France has been identified. He hasn't tested positive for anything yet, but I've got a record of getting these guys right (I picked Schumacher after his ITT last year). Bradley Wiggins has gone from a time trial specialist who couldn't climb a ladder to suddenly sticking with the heads of state on the climbs in the Pyrenees. Even when the group thinned down to about 15 riders at the top of the Andorra climb (dropping riders of the quality of Kim Kirchen and Roman Kruiziger), Wiggins was there. This from a rider who finished 71st, 2hrs and 20 minutes behind in the Giro earlier this year, and couldn't drop Fabian Cancellara in the Tour of Switzerland. Just wait until a few stages time, when he gets done, and his Olympic samples are re-tested. There'll be a real shit storm.

7/08/2009

Cycling: Lance In Yellow... Almost

So we come to the first of my mid-Tour De France reviews. Fabian Cancellara still has the Maillot Jaune which some observers expected him to take in the first individual time trial and hold until the roads tip upwards, probably giving up the jersey after stage 7. However, The Lance almost managed to take it from him in the team time trial stage 4 last night (Australian time). Astana put in an awesome TTT, to take 40 seconds from Saxo Bank and put The Lance exactly equal with Cancellara (to the second atleast). After the race, the judges decided on a countback (don't you hate countbacks) to give the Jersey to Cancellara again.

Biggest Surprise

Team Columbia-HTC split the peloton on stage 3 around the 30 km mark, and the 28 or so riders in the front of the split (including contenders The Lance, Cancellara, Rogers and Kirchen) picked up 30 seconds on what was a flat stage. The Lance may or may not have the climbing legs to win the Tour, but he can still motor on the flat and pick the right move.

You Idiots!
Bbox Bouygues Telecom had a mass crash in the Team Time Trial after someone forgot to tell them that they weren't riding mountain bikes.



Sprinters
The Cav has dominated the 2 sprints so far, with wins on stage 2 and 3. He was helped by a crash which limited his opposition in stage 2. On stage 3, The "God of Thunder" Thor Hushovd (best nickname in all of world sport) was the only other sprinter in the front section of the split and couldn't pass the Cav. He should be a certainty for the Green Jersey if he can be bothered to climb the mountains. Or maybe he'll decide to quit half way and give the Poms a hand figuring out when to declare in the Ashes (after Haurtiz has sent down about 60 wicketless overs probably).

The Heads of State (GC)
Fabian Cancellara (1st, +0 s)
Has held the Yellow since the 1st stage, but wont be able to cut it in the mountains.
Lance Armstrong (2nd, +0 and a tiny little bit s)
Looks very strong, putting in extended shifts in the TTT. Mountain legs still uncertain.
Alberto Contador (3rd, +19 s)
Hasn't done anything to dispute his pre-tour favouritism yet. Missed the Columbia split but put in the 2nd best ITT. May be the Sastre to Armstrong's Schleck in a repeat of CSCs strategy last year.
Andreas Kloden (4th, +23 s)
Forgotten man of Astana, should just oplay a role for Armstrong and Contador, but may make an ambitious attack at some stage to try to take the team leadership.
Christian Van De Velde (12th, +1:16)
Has been coming back from injury, so his mountain legs are uncertain. Team Garmin put in a great 5 man TTT for him. Still paying $80 for the win and $14 for a podium (paying better money than Cancellara!?) , get on him now.
Roman Kreuziger (15th, +1:31)
Liquigas put in a better than expected TTT to give him a real shot at a podium in the finish.
Michael Rogers (16th, +1:32)
Had mechanical issues in the ITT which has him below where he could be. Won't have the mountain legs to catch Contador.
Andy Schleck (20th, +1:41)
Has improved his ITT abilities, but Saxo Bank were a bit disappointing in the TTT for him. Still a genuine contender.
Kim Kirchen (24th, +2:16)
Isn't up with the contenders on the ITT, but could still surprise on the mountains.
Carlos Sastre (29th, +2:44)
Has atleast got the TTT out of the way without race ruining damage, but will need to attack, and hard to beat Contador and Asrmstrong from nearly 3 minutes back.
Cadel Evans (35th, +2:59)
He would have been spitting chips when he heard there would be a TTT in this year's Tour, Silence-Lotto aren't nearly good enough to contend with the big guns in this discipline. Like Sastre, will need to attack to have any chance. Unlike Sastre, attacking is not Evans' strong suit.
Denis Menchov (72nd, +3:52)
Had a poor ITT, then fell during the TTT, costing him and his team time. Surely has no chance from here.

My tip is still Contador, but The Lance may be able to foul him up if he gets the team working for him.

7/01/2009

Tour De France Dream Team Cycling

I've started up a Tour De France DT League in the SBS competition for this blog's readers too. A bit late notice obviously (the Tour starts in a couple of days) but SBS= obscure, cycling=obscure and yet theres about $15,000 in prizes.
Crowmaniac.blogspot.com :
Pos. Team Manager Mn. Pts.
Last Updated: 01/07/2009 08:33:33
http://fantasytdf.sbs.com.au/
99999 Rushed Behind 0 0

6/30/2009

Ashes Fantasy Cricket League

With the Ashes series coming up, I've started a league in the official cricket Australia fantasy competition for this blog's readers. The address is http://fantasy.cricket.com.au/ and when you sign up, you will need to enter the league code 170599. It should be a lot of fun, Test cricket being one of the games most suited to Dream Team-like competitions (apart from Aussie Rules) and there is $20,000 in prizes to be won. My secret tip to winning is to not pick Nathan bloody Hauritz!

6/25/2009

Split Averted... But Can Formula 1 Convert The Spare With The Tour Fast Approaching?

Almost as soon as any real consequences of the potential F1 series breakaway were considered, the split is now off. Max Mosley has agreed to resign from his presidency of the FIA and now the teams are placated. Read more here... if you think that this situation will hold together for any more than a few days before someone decides to play some more politics of doom. It is exactly this kind of politics which continues to dog Formula 1. Where there is money, prestige and power, some people will seek to control it for their own ends, regardless of the impact on other parties. Witness drug cheats like Alejandro Valverde as another example. Valverde has been banned from the Tour De France this year by Italian authorities (wait, France isnt part of Italy is it?) because of his involvement in infamous Operation Puerto. The Italian Olympic Committee banned Valverde from racing in Italy for 2 years and this year's Tour passes through Italy briefly (well that explains why Italian authorities are involved). Valverde reckons that the Italian Olympic Committee have no power over him because he is Spanish, but its only a matter of time until the UCI act on the same findings that the Italians have used. And anyway, the ASO which runs the Tour has a record of being probably the harshest sporting body in the world on drugs (and rightly so). Tom Boonen has been banned because he has twice tested positive for cocaine in the past year. And last year the whole Astana team was banned because of the team's history of doping in the 2007 Tour, robbing Alberto Contador of the right to defend his title (even though he was with Discovery Channel when the doping occurred at Astana). Cycling may have drug cheast, but atleast they are trying to fix the problem. No-one in F1 seems to want to throttle back the backroom scheming. Now, I'm not saying that this is anywhere near as bad as drug cheating, just that they are both similar types of problems.

6/23/2009

FOTA vs F1

In recent weeks, the relationship between the Formula One Teams Association (FOTA) and Formula 1 has grown increasingly fractured, until FOTA announced a week or so ago that they would form a breakaway championship next year. The big 3 reasons for this were money (budget caps), politics and freedom (technical). The only recognised teams left in the regular F1 championship for next year are now Williams and Force India. Presumably then, the FOTA championship will take over the niche that F1 has held within 2 years, and F1 will become a feeder category, because lets face it, nobody wants to see any competition that has a powerhouse like Force India a podium chance.

But more interestingly, what technical regulations will the FOTA championship have? Formula 1 has been vastly over regulated for a long time, curtailing engineering improvements to gradual aerodynamic improvements. There has been little innovation or real change since the pointy-up nose cone in the early 1990s. Soon after any team makes a real breakthrough, it is banned by the FIA who want a driver's series. If you want a driver's series, watch touring car racing. Formula 1 (or its FOTA replacement) should be about engineering the fastest possible car. Lets bring back some of the radical design ideas of the past...
The Tyrrell P34 for example, which raced in 1976-77.

6/01/2009

Cycling: Menchov Crashes in Last Stage - Still Wins Giro

The 2009 Giro D' Italia was decided today, with Denis Menchov and Danilo Di Luca pushing to the limit on wet, cobblestoned roads in Rome. Denis started with only a 20 second lead over the final 14 odd kilometer time trial, with Di Luca Menchov crashed in the final kilometer, and showed great guts (and top class a mechanic) to get straight back on a new bike and get home in time. I tried to cut together a video of this from my tv tuner, but windows movie maker does rather suck, so you'll have to do with the youtube version, with the Pommy comentator who sucks so much that SBS put a pair of local commentators on after the first couple of stages. Seriously, he sounds like he's trying to be monotonous, like he's describing a historical parade, not a bike race. And the Youtube video spells Menchov wrong on the title (even when it's displayed during almost the whole video) and has an odd pause around the crash. All credit to Denis, he deserved to win. Di Luca threw everything he had at him up Vesuvius and couldn't shake him from his back wheel.




Next stop Paris for the Tour (which SBS shows close to full stages of) and then the Vuelta (which I hope SBS will do the same thing as the Giro and show daily highlights). Armstrong started to show some good form towards the end of the Giro and should be strong enough for a top 10 in the Tour, but I don't reckon he has the legs to match Contador and will be stuck in a supporting role to him. Be interesting to see how Astana handle their riders in the Tour, with definately Armstrong and Contador and possibly Leipheimer contenders. They might get stuck like Liquigas did in the Giro, supporting too many riders and getting 3rd and 4th instead of 1st and 10th. CSC Saxobank showed how 2 leaders can work with Schleck and Sastre last year though.

Finally, Mick Doughty has done enough in his recent tagging roles to get off the Shit list, and Denis Menchov gets on the legends list for his effort as shown above.

5/27/2009

Cycling: Giro D'Italia - Mark Cavendish - Typical Pom

What is the typical English trait?
I reckon its smashing the easybeats and quitting when you have to take on the tough challenges. Look at the English cricket team. They have smashed the West Indies who barely deserve to be called a test team, but will get beaten by the Aussies when it really matters. England's football team has a history of not winning a major title since the 1966 World Cup despite inventing the game and having probably the strongest domestic competition. They always get partway there before quitting when they face some real opposition. This brings us to England's great quitter: Mark Cavendish.

Cav quit the 2007 Tour De France in the 8th stage. That's not even half way. He then quit the 2008 version of the race after 13 stages, citing a need to rest up for the Olympics. He was the only British track cycist not to win a medal at those Olympics (alteast according to wikipedia), so obviously he didn't quit early enough. Cavendish has just recently quit the Giro D'Italia after the 13th stage. He apparantly needed to rest up for the Tour. How does he need to rest for an event in which he will probably manage half the stages? No wonder a former team mate, Roger Hammond said early in 2007 "To be honest, he started the season so catastrophically that the staff were wondering what they could enter Mark for so that he could finish the race."

Now onto some better riders in this year's Giro. The contenders should be down to 3, unless someone like Basso does a Oscar Pereiro. Denis Menchov holds the pink jersey by 39 seconds from Danilo "The Killer" Di Luca. Carlos Sastre looked strong yesterday, and won stage 16 to move to 2 minutes 19 seconds behind Menchov. The Blockhaus stage tomorrow should decide the winner. I expect Sastre to attack hard for the mountaintop finish. Di Luca and Menchov have to react and stick with him after yesterday. Di Luca should be capable of doing it, but Menchov might be dropped. I tip Di Luca to be wearing pink after tomorrow.

There is only one more stage that might affect the general classification after that, stage 19 finishing on Vesuvius. Expect lots of attempted attacks without much success as the shorter climb will not allow much in the way of time gaps.

One big disappointment for this year's Giro, from an Aussie perspective has been Mick Rogers. he has done as expected in the climbs, not quite having the weaponary of a Sastre or Di Luca, but for a former 3-time world time trial champion to lose 2:46 on stage winner Menchov and even 28 seconds on Sastre, who is not a noted time-triallist is very disappointing. Atleast Simon Gerrans flew the Aussie flag by winning stage 14.

5/21/2009

The Specialist Fielder - Jared Petrenkalenko And Legend Matthew Hayden


The picture is worth 1000 words (or in this case, 46 if you count numbers as words).  I guess I brought this on myself with my close wins last week. My undefeated streak is over, with losses in 2 leagues and the eliminator. On the plus side, now atleast I won't waste trades to keep a strong eliminator team. Two Points! Two Points? I blame Happy Chappy for this loss, if he had atleast played and went off injured in the 1st 1/4 (after getting atleast a kick) I would have won. 

That brings me on to the second specialist fielder in history (not counting Cam White, who is a given)  - Jared "Petrenkalenko" Petrenko

How did he keep getting a game? (He has just been dropped in the latest teams to be announced) Jared has had less than 10 disposals for his past five games. Sure, his first 3 games were fairly good, with 15, 18 and 14 touches, but surely someone better could have taken his spot. 

Less than 10 touches for 5 games in a row - thats Specialist Fielder material and also earns him a spot in the Shit List. 

Now lets talk about someone who quite clearly isn't shit at all. If fact, Matthew Hayden is the second addition to the list of Rushed Behind Legends. 
Haydos has 546 runs at an average of 55 in 11 IPL games this year striking at above 140. He was the highest run scorer in the last T20 World Cup. Yet his hasn't been asked back for this year's comp. Instead Australia have opted for the dubious talents of Dave Warner, and the 'totally not an opener' options of Hopes, Watson, Clarke and Haddin (Phil Hughes was obviously deemed in too good form to be picked). The form Haydos is in, you'd consider him for the Ashes, even if he plays it like a T20 game. The only problem is that he has 'retired'. But, the retirement was forced by selcetors who would no longer pick him (unlike the Huss, who has stayed in the side despite a far worse run than Haydos ever had). Surely he could come back as a T20 specialist and pulverise attacks for another couple of years?


5/14/2009

Geary You Legend!

Rushed Behind is adding a new sidebar, like the Shit List, but to recognise players who aren't shit. Like Jarryn Geary (well okay, his name is a bit shit) who single handedly saved my Dream Team from its first and second losses for the season (across 3 leagues and the eliminator). He and Travis Cloke (now added to the shit list for his long string of third rate performances across this season) needed to beat Pendlebury or Dal Santo and about 15ish points in 2 of my leagues in the last game of last round. Travis Cloke took the responsibility and got injured. Jarryn fired up for a 94 which gave me wins by 7 and 8 points to keep my record intact. He has also gone up $112,900 (even further than Luke Hodge (also added to the Shit List for consistant underperformance in DT) has gone down) and averaged more than 80 over the season so far. "The Vital Cog" is proving to be one of my most inspired selections (along with Otten and Krak-Whore). After Higgins ripped a hole in my side last week (assisted by Cloke and Hodge) I'm down to 1400th (exactly) but with those two Shit Listers out, I'm on the way up. If anyone has had 2 closer leagues (in 1 round) than 7 and 8, I'd like to hear about it!

4/29/2009

Too Many Games, Not Enough Openers, Still Too Much Hauritz

Australia are playing cricket at the moment. Just thought I'd tell you, becuase noone seems to know or care. They are in Abu Dhabi playing Pakistan in a series of 50 over games. How many pointless ODIs are being played these days? Is anyone outside (or even inside, given the (SA)IPL is on) cricket mad India actually watching these games? In more relevant (and still not blogged about becuase I've been blogging about DT) cricket, we still don't know who the best test side in the world is after Australia beat South Africa 2-1, flipping the scoreline in Australia. There were then 2 T20s and 5 ODIs (after 2 and 5 in Australia). Why do we need this many ODI games? Everyone knows that the only ODI matches that count for anything are the World Cup (and theres far too many games there too). For the record, SA won most of the ODI games and Australia still didn't play Phil Hughes in any of them. This scheduling has gone too far. 

The Aussies have played 708 Tests in 133 years, and 705 ODIs in 39 years. You could drop back the number of ODIs and stop the players bitching about playing too much cricket so easily. 

Now, at the moment the ODI side has any of Haddin, Clarke, Hopes and Watson opening. I'nm disregarding Marsh, becuase he seems to usually be playing, atleast when he isn't injured. None of these players are proper openers. So, clearly Australia must have no-one qualified for the job. Lets look at the candidates:

Phil Hughes:
Averaged 69 in the 3 tests he has played against SA, struck at 58 (Haydos struck at 60, so Hughesy isn't too slow for it). Why oh why is he not in the ODI side?

Matthew Hayden:
Forcefully retired from the test side, now averages 59 at 152 in 8 games in the IPL. In the past 2 years (takes in the last 16 ODIs he played) he averaged 42 and struck at 83. Some players are forced to only play in one form of the game (ie Bracken), why not give Haydos a chance again?

Or you could throw the Huss (Mike) up there where he used to play, and play him into some form. Except that he's being rested, because he has played too many ODIs lately...

How the hell is Hauritz averaging 29 and going for 4.8 an over in ODIs? Well, 14 of his 22(63%) wickets have come caught by a fielder (ie slogging and got caught on the boundary), and 2(9%) stumped (ie slogging and missed). In comparison, that sheik of tweak Michael Clarke has 51 wickets (yes, he has played more games, thats why I'm putting %s)  and 23 caught fielder (45%) with 3 stumped (6%). When it comes to a game that matters (hopefully not the Ashes), Hauritz will stink up the place worse than Bryce McGain's first day. 

In unrelated matters, Stephen Hill has done enough to get taken off the Shit List. 

4/23/2009

Another Bargain Down With Injury

Bargain No. 2 for this year's Dream Team has gone down with injury, following Andrew Raines (who is back in the VFL this week). Hayden Skipworth, selected by 89,991 Dream Teamers (basically everyone except this guy) has done a hammy and will be out until atleast round 8. He has only gone up 54K so far, and your rookies haven't gone up enough to turn him into a premium yet. So hang on, and play Walker (if you have him) or Brown on the field. 

Now, about everybody's favourite Captain (except Calvin of DTTalk.com who recommended not to put him as C and got flamed down by irate commentors), Gablett! He knocked up 46 touches last week and 3 goals, but only netted himself 155 DT points. Thats some Daniel "No Marks" Kerr style "underpointing" (I know its not a word, but I reckon it should be). He was laughably "tagged" by a combination of Robert Shirley and Michael Doughty who both go onto The Rushed Behind Shit List for their efforts. 

Facts About Players Selected In Dream Team:
Shane Valenti of Melbourne is the least selected player in all of DT, with only 352 people selecting him. 
Surprisingly, Brent Moloney of Melbourne has only been selected by 672 people, despite him being actually playing and fairly good. 
Nick Fosdike, who retired before the season started has been selected by 2663 morons. 
However, thats nothing compared with the 4576 people who have Pat Garner (Bris) who was on the Rookie list to start with and did his 3rd ACL in the preseason. A special mention to the people who traded him in last week (his change in selections was +22 last week)
Of course, the gold in stupidity must go to the 7843 people who have Matt Egan, despite him probably never playing again and definately being out for the whole season. 

So it clearly takes a special kind of skill to finish in the bottom 1000 of Dream Team. Why not try it next year?

4/16/2009

All Hodge's Base Are Belong To Malware!

I recently upgraded to the 21st century (not dialup) and somewhere during the process of getting a decent firewall, antivirus and anti-spyware combination, picked up some nasty malware. How does this affect my Dream Team? I hear you say. Well, if your computer is screwed, you can't get on the net to update your team or make trades. So shutup and let me continue my story... This particular program failed to show up in antiviral scans using both McAfee and AVG, and anti spyware scans with 3 different programs. So I had to get my hands dirty inside regedit and find the source (with a bit of help from your good friend the internet). Why am I telling you this? Becuase if you can't read my blog, theres no point in me writing it. So, for my sake, make sure you have the latest version of (Not internet explorer) your browser, and good quality firewalls (not windows firewall) , antiviral software and antispyware programs. Sermon ends.

Last week was a bumper week for Dream Team scoring, with my decision to keep the Blockmeister and Raines vindicated by a post-2100 score thanks to Chapman and Gablett (now that Nathan's retired, the G isn't really necessary) However, Hodge has still failed to click into gear (maybe he is infected too) , providing a microcosm of Hawthorn's overall performance. They do have some players out, but I think their performance is more that they simply weren't that good to begin with. The Cats were the best side for all of last year, except the one week that mattered (and when they lost to Collingwood).

That picture is copyright Me, 2009 :-) Hawthorn's cheer squad certainly know how to make a banner that breaks well.

4/09/2009

Raines Limited to Malaysian Formula 1 Grand Prix

Its decision time on sideways dream team trades. Especially for those of you with either Rushed Behind bargain pick Andrew Raines, premium Nathan Bock or rookie Liam Anthony(grr...). Or heaps of other players such as removing Stephen Hill (averaged 69.3 points in 3 pre-season games and 25.5 in 2 games in the real stuff, you are going onto the shit list!) or getting Dan Rich or Mitch Robinson into your midfield. For my team, I'm taking a risk and using my trades in a more cash-productive way, keeping Raines and Bock as reserves and playing Suban and Petrenko on the field. Robinson and Zaharakis come onto the reserves for the not-playing Anthony (grrr.....) and Cook. Injury Update lists Raines as Rd 5 and Bock as Rd 4 although anything could happen with Bock. Despite this, Raines still managed to disrupt the Formula 1 race in Malaysia over the weekend, forcing an early halt to the race after he apparantly "bucketed down on the track". Dream Teamers should thank their lucky stars that he didn't get hit while he was on the track, because getting hit by a Formula 1 car is a long term injury. Still, while he was around, the racing was better. Hopefully, until he is ready to get back into the Richmond side, Raines can affect more Formula 1 races. I almost forgot what overtaking was until last week.

Many of you won't have the luxury of 2 playing backs though, (and I might not either, both Petrenko and Suban are on extended Benches this week, but both played last week) so here are some options for Raines (if you have Bock and really want to sideways trade a premium this early, you can pick your own):

Shannon Hurn (197,400):
Provided a stack of DT points last week, in a performance which should remind coaches what he can do. Has averaged 70 over the 2 games. Plays a 1/4 back role in the defence, pushing into the midfield and is a preferred ball user (meaning more kicks and cheap sideways handball recieves) for the Coasters.

Jarryn Geary (192,100):
Has averaged 65, playing mainly in the midfield or defence. I still like the look of him, if only his teammates did too. Main downside is limited TOG and he is a midget, so there shouldn't be too many marks.

If you don't like the look of either of those, you could take your pick of rookies Rance (86,600), Cheney (86,600) or Petrenko (86,600) . Broughton will play his first game for Freo (named in a back pocket) and is 75,300 for those of you who need a bit more money for another trade.

Edit: Nick Gill is named at CHF for the Crows. Gilly! Gilly! Gilly! The best player who can't kick (except maybe Richo) is back in the side!

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